![]() The new hybrid model should prove an easier act to pull off in Turkmenistan compared to most other post-Soviet states, as the country’s elites are relatively small in number and highly consolidated. Of greater importance for the presidential duo than the mechanics of succession and the intricacies of the constitution is the way the new father-son tandem can lower the risk of contestation over of state assets among the country’s elites. In addition, the chair of the upper chamber is next in line for the presidency, which means Gurbanguly is slated to take power again if his son dies or is incapacitated.īut politics in Turkmenistan is a scripted affair. In a blatant constitutional violation, before the election Gurbanguly simultaneously held the posts of president, chair of the Cabinet of Ministers and leader of parliament’s upper chamber.Īs Turkmenistan has no vice president, and the posts of president and prime minister are one and the same, in his capacity as head of the People’s Council he is now the second highest ranking official. Similar to Nazarbayev’s original plan, the elder Berdimuhamedow does not plan to fully step back from power. This is the case in Turkmenistan and also Tajikistan, whose president Emomali Rahmon – in power since 1994 and Central Asia’s longest-serving autocrat – clearly plans to hand power to his eldest son Rustam Emomali, currently chair of Tajikistan’s National Assembly and mayor of the country’s capital Dushanbe. The more consolidated and compact the authoritarian regime, the more openly the grooming of a successor can take place. However, Aliyev Senior died a mere 42 days after the swearing in of Aliyev Junior, leaving the ‘living father-son transfer of power model’ essentially untested. ![]() The daughter of the deceased president of Uzbekistan, Gulnara Karimova, whom many believed was a potential successor to her father, also ended up in prison following a spectacular downfall as a result of her illegal business activities and use of social networks.ĭynastic succession did take place successfully in Azerbaijan when, in 2003, President Heydar Aliyev stepped aside in favour of his son, Ilham, who remains in power to this day. In Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev’s son-in-law Rahat Aliyev, whom he had been grooming for succession in the late 1990s/early 2000s, was convicted of plotting to overthrow Nazarbayev’s government and ultimately died in prison in Vienna. Going down the dynasty route and filling the halls of government with relatives can work quite well – until it fails and things fall apart in grand fashion. Considering the paramount need to secure kleptocratic revenues and the presidential legacy, the smart autocrat will attempt to hand-pick a successor – ideally a son or daughter – whose loyalty is unimpeachable. Such scandals make leaders look vulnerable. By combining a dynastic succession with a ruling duumvirate, Gurbanguly appears to be hoping to avoid some of the pitfalls suffered by previous succession models in the region – such as in neighbouring Kazakhstan where ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev ruled as part of a political tandem with the hand-picked president, Kassym Jomart-Tokayev, creating heightened intra-elite conflict and ending in violent failure.īy combining a dynastic succession with a ruling duumvirate, Gurbanguly appears to be hoping to avoid some of the pitfalls suffered by previous succession models in the region Turkmenistan’s current transition model is unique. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow is set to retain his role as chair of the parliament’s upper chamber, the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) – a position that will allow him to oversee and directly influence state policy in addition to wielding power behind the scenes. ![]() As Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, authorities in Turkmenistan – an autocratic post-Soviet state with the world’s fourth largest gas reserves – avoided any talk of the war and instead urged citizens to vote early in the snap presidential election on 12 March.Īs predicted, Serdar Berdimuhamedow – son of long-time president Gurbanguly – garnered the majority of the vote and was sworn into office, ushering in the Central Asian region’s first dynastic succession and only the second such transfer of power in the entire post-Soviet space.
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